Rafah Operation Looms: Will Netanyahu Defy Biden's Warnings?

Israel is preparing for the invasion of Rafah, which Tel Aviv calls the last stronghold of Hamas. The operation is likely to trigger a new round of escalation in the Gaza Strip and lead to massive casualties.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on April 29 that Washington has not yet seen Tel Aviv's plan to ensure Palestinian civilians' security during the Rafah operation.

"We’ve said clearly, and for some time now on Rafah that, in the absence of a plan to ensure that civilians will not be harmed, we can’t support a major military operation in Rafah," Blinken said at the World Economic Forum (WEF) panel on Monday. "And we have not yet seen a plan that gives us confidence that civilians can be effectively protected."

Nonetheless, preparations for the Israeli operation are going ahead full throttle. The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft referred to new satellite imagery that appears to show Israeli forces modernizing two military outposts in central Gaza.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) is seeking to consolidate control of the so-called Netzarim Corridor which runs east to west from the Gaza-Israel border to the Mediterranean Sea and de facto separates northern and southern Gaza.

The corridor runs through a river valley which also serves as a natural barrier between two parts of Gaza. It is also the narrowest part of the strip, making it relatively easy to control.

The Times of Israel reported that the IDF may deploy two additional brigades to the Netzarim Corridor for the planned push into Rafah. The newspaper explained that the strategic corridor enables the IDF to carry out raids in both parts of Gaza and tighten control over the movements of Palestinian refugees.

Israeli officials repeatedly stated that without taking Rafah, which is believed to be the last stronghold of Hamas, victory in the Gaza war would be impossible.

Despite supplying Tel Aviv with new arms, the Biden administration appears to be apprehensive about the IDF's potential Rafah operation.

The Israeli invasion of Rafah could further escalate tensions in the region and lead to further escalations from Hezbollah and Yemen's Ansar Allah-led government, who support Palestine. The escalation in Gaza could also add to anti-Israeli sentiment in the US, where massive student protests have taken place over the past two weeks, and hurt Biden's chances of re-election in November.

Israel's Rafah operation could also disrupt the Biden administration's efforts to broker normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. A recent New York Times op-ed by Thomas Friedman warned that "Israel has a choice to make: Rafah or Riyadh."

Israeli conservatives are pushing for the continuation of the Gaza war until "total victory". Jerusalem Post correspondent Seth Frantzman argued that "the only way to get to Riyadh for a peace deal is through Rafah, not without Rafah."

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Rafah operation is part of his election campaign, according to Haaretz. It is unclear whether the Rafah assault would be just a PR stunt for Netanyahu or whether a full-fledged military campaign will be launched. The PM has a long record of disobeying orders and failing to heed warnings from Washington.