DC Think Tank: Israel's Beirut Bomb Forces Hamas, Hezbollah & Iran to Retaliate

The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft has warned about a potential escalation and retaliatory measures in the Middle East following Saleh al-Arouri's assassination.

Hamas' Deputy Head of the Political Bureau Saleh al-Arouri was assassinated together with two other officials on Tuesday in southern Beirut.

Even though Israel has not taken responsibility for the attack, one Israeli and two US officials confirmed to the US press that Tel Aviv was behind the attack.

The extraterritorial killing could be perceived as a direct challenge to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, forcing the three to scale-up the intensity of their fight, as per the DC-based think tank Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Per the think tank, the odds of an Israeli-Hezbollah clash have risen in the short term. The two had already been exchanging artillery and rocket fire across the border.

"The drone that killed Arouri struck far from that border, in a portion of southern Beirut that is considered a Hezbollah stronghold," wrote Paul R. Pillar, a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute.

Pillar believes that the Hezbollah leadership is not seeking a repetition of the 2006 war with Israel, which led to significant human and material losses. However, given that the Shiite group has long committed to protect the Lebanese people from Israeli attacks, it "may have now been pushed closer to carrying out more of the threats of retaliation it has been voicing since Israel began its assault on Gaza," the scholar argued.

Hamas may also be pushed to retaliate, given that Arouri used to be one of its most prominent leaders, Pillar continued. In addition to being deputy to exiled Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, al-Arouri played important roles in the Palestinian group’s financial activities and its liaison with Hezbollah and Iran.

"For the time being, Hamas obviously has its hands full with the fighting in the Gaza Strip. But it probably will seek some action that could be seen as tit-for-tat retaliation for the killing of Arouri," wrote the QI scholar.

Even though Iran's role in the unfolding Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been largely overstated, according to Pillar, Tehran may also find itself on the horns of a dilemma in the wake of al-Arouri's killing.

The crux of the matter is that the Iranian leadership "already was feeling pressure from inside Iran from those who believe it has not sufficiently retaliated for Israel’s killing of Sayyed Razi Mousavi, Iran’s senior officer in Syria," the think tank's fellow pointed out, referring to the fact that Mousavi was assassinated less than two weeks ago.

The Iranians can't just ignore Mousavi and al-Arouri's deaths amid the ongoing bloodbath in Gaza, the scholar believes.

Per Pillar, "In the present context [al-Arouri's assassination] is another signal of the Israeli government’s determination to continue the assault on Gaza with no end in sight and with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having personal and political reasons to keep it going."

Given all of the above, there is a great risk of Tel Aviv forcing its neighbors into stepping up the intensity of the fight by the so-called Axis of Resistance and spilling the crisis out of Gaza into countries of the region, according to the DC think tank.