Vietnam Plays an Outsized Role in US-China Rivalry

Both the United States and China have a complex history with Vietnam that colors relations with the East Asian country to this day.

For two decades during the latter half of the twentieth century, a proxy conflict between major powers ensured Vietnam remained front-and-center in the world’s imagination. Now a new rivalry is ensuring the East Asian country’s continued importance, although this time the struggle is in the economic arena.

Both the United States and China have made major diplomatic overtures towards the country in recent months. In September, President Joe Biden elevated the US’ relationship with Vietnam to “strategic partnership” status, continuing Democratic administrations’ attempts to strengthen ties with Hanoi since former President Bill Clinton normalized relations in the 1990s.

Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping made his own effort to enhance his nation’s relationship with the country during a visit where he met with leaders of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam.

A Vietnamese friendship with China may seem obvious given the ideological sympathies shared by the two countries, especially after US involvement in the Vietnam War contributed to the death of some three million people. But China also has a difficult history with Hanoi going back to the time of the Chinese imperial dynasties, which often sought control in East Asia.

The two countries were involved in a brief military clash as recently as 1979. Vietnam was more closely aligned with the Soviet Union during that period, while China’s foreign policy often saw them take the same side as the United States in various conflicts. A recent statement from China after former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s death called him an “old and good friend,” demonstrating the affinity shared between the countries.

The world has changed dramatically in the more than 40 years since that time, and now China and the United States each seek greater partnership with Vietnam to enhance their global economic position. The United States courts the country as a part of their broader “pivot to Asia” since the Obama administration, hoping to help contain China.

For China, Vietnam is an economic go-between that helps them engage with the world economy. US sanctions and tariffs have complicated that effort in recent years. By finishing their products in Vietnam, Chinese companies are able to sell on the global market and avoid the “made in China” designation.

For now Hanoi seems to be enjoying their kingmaker status, pursuing relations with both China and the United States where it favors the country’s development. Long-term it remains to be seen whether ideological sympathies or pure economic calculation will play the leading role in determining Vietnam’s foreign policy.

If Hanoi is eventually forced to choose between one country or the other, China’s growing economic power may make the decision obvious.