US Embargo on Cuba to Be Lifted in Stages

Experts claim that a full lifting of the US embargo on Cuba is unlikely, but could unfold in stages over time starting with the lifting of the existing travel ban against the island nation.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — A full lifting of the US embargo on Cuba is unlikely, but could unfold in stages over time starting with the lifting of the existing travel ban against the island nation, experts told Sputnik.

"Even though lifting the embargo might be a long shot… there might be certain steps or certain provisions of the embargo that could be lifted one at time," Georgia Regent University Assistant Professor of Political Science Paolo Spadoni said on Thursday.

"The embargo will start with lifting the travel ban, some credit provisions, perhaps some investment or trade extensions for certain sectors," Spadoni, who authored a book on the Cuban economy, said.

The United States still maintains a nearly 50-year-old congressionally-mandated embargo on Cuba despite certain travel and trade restrictions being lifted by President Barack Obama through executive actions.

While Obama has advocated for lifting all restrictions on Cuba, a reluctant Republican-controlled US Congress ultimately holds the final say in doing away with the embargo.

However, Spadoni pointed out that the momentum to lift aspects of the embargo is gaining, especially the restrictive travel ban that could lead to a spike in American tourists to the island. That in turn, could lead to other aspects of the embargo being lifted in stages, he said.

"The travel ban has been main aspect of the embargo… once you lift the travel ban there are other things that you also have to eventually lift," Spadoni added.

As the United States and Cuba pass through the first stages of normalizing relations, US public opinion alongside certain business interests is moving increasingly toward lifting the embargo in full or in part.

Spadoni warned the way the trade and investment relationship plays out will depend on a number of factors, including implementing trade and investment reforms in Cuba, where the government maintains a 51 percent stake in businesses.

"In the case of Cuba, we will have to see how investment law in Cuba develops," Spadoni stated.

The main issues, he noted, are whether the Cuban government will allow 100 percent foreign investment and ownership as well as reduce interference.

Andy Gomez, a retired Cuban Studies Fellow at the University of Miami, told Sputnik he sees little prospect for the embargo being lifting and US businesses entering the market.

"The American businesses that have pushed for openness are realizing the risks are greater than the opportunities," Gomez said. "Cubans want American tourism dollars, they don’t want foreign investment."

US businesses, he argued, certainly would want to see a more secure business environment before moving into Cuba once the embargo is lifted.

Moreover, Gomez stated, the Cuban government will likely turn to Russia, the European Union, Mexico and Brazil for investment without all the restrictions imposed by the United States.

Spadani disagreed, saying that the United States is Cuba’s natural trading and investment partner.

The United States is a partner that could ultimately displace investors from other countries, he concluded.