ESTONIA
Local media believe Russia is capable of aggression against one of the Baltic states for the sake of its geopolitical interests.
"The growing number of Russian speakers (the majority of whom cannot speak correctly even their native languge) in Estonia is dramatically changing our 'political landscape.' Russia won't have a hard time finding a pretext to attack its smaller neighbors - it'll claim discrimination against Russians or the Russian-speaking citizens of another country. Russia's imperial ambitions would certainly be more easily attainable if Russia's small neighbors start giving out passports of their countries to former subjects of the defunct Soviet Union or their descendants." (Postimaes, October 10)
"A short and victorious war against a few neighboring countries could keep the Kremlin chiefs afloat amid growing difficulties with paying out wages and pensions. For such purposes, they would rather target one of the Baltic states than, say, Ukraine." (Parnu Postimaes, October 10)
"We have seen here in Estonia how those still reluctant to recognize the sovereignty of the former Soviet republics and their withdrawal from Moscow's control try to heighten tensions. Their propaganda is aimed at undermining confidence in Estonia, at influencing those who live here, and at stirring up tension in the country." (Eesti Paevaleht, October 10)
LATVIA
Several media sources severely criticized the recent statements by Latvia's Transport Minister, Ainars Slesers, who described Latvia's support of Georgia in the latter's conflict with Russia as an irresponsible demarche that endangered the national economy.
"There are several different foreign policies. One is to team up with NATO and the EU, another to cooperate with countries close to the EU, and still another can be described by an old Latin maxim 'Money doesn't smell.'" Such statements sound strange when spoken by a Cabinet minister.
"What we should do is renounce any policy based on economic benefit, because some day, it could turn out that Latvia would be better off if it joined the CIS, or better still, integrate into the Russian Federation... Slesers's embarrassing and scandalous statements have put us in an awkward position in the eyes of the West. He made it sounds as if, from an economic perspective, we would be better off if we become a part of Russia... If Russia is allowed to do as it pleases, who will it choose as its next takeover target - Ukraine, Moldova?" (Latvijas Avize, October 10)
"For those who care about nothing but their personal purse, politics is no more than a means of earning more money. It is different, however, when a minister starts using this kind of rhetoric. At this point, it is no longer an insignificant personal calculation, but rather a politically motivated move. Simply put, please Russia and hope that it rewards those who please it most." (Latvijas Avize, October 11)
LITHUANIA
Local journalists have concluded that the Russian government is unwilling to admit the real scope of the financial crisis. They believe that Russia's conflict with Georgia over South Ossetia aggravated the situation on stock markets.
"The Russian government told its financiers, who are wringing their hands in despair, that there was no crisis in Russia, and even advised state-controlled TV and radio channels to avoid using the words crisis and collapse. After Russia's invasion of Georgia, when Russian stocks lost one-third of their value, and Western countries began threatening Russia with sanctions, Russian billionaires began to seriously doubt continued support for Vladimir Putin's Cabinet and his policy.
"Now that the government has said that there is nothing threatening going on in the country, and that the blame will fall on the hated Americans and the West as a whole, Russian businessmen who have lost part of their billions are no longer big fans of the Kremlin.
"Putin, along with his puppet president, Dmitry Medvedev, never misses a chance to take a swipe at America and the West." (Lietuvos Zinios, October 10)
"Analysts predicting an early collapse of the United States are probably deluding themselves into seeing what they want to see. Whatever the losses inflicted by the crisis, the U.S. economy is very flexible and has sufficient reserves to bail itself out. Russia's position is much less advantageous. The global crisis coincided with Russia's invasion of Georgia and investor confidence in the country plummeted. Foreign strategists emphasize that Moscow, unlike the United States, is relying heavily on a highly unreliable foundation - oil and gas exports." (Lietuvos Ritas, October 8)
BELARUS
The press is angry with Gazprom and has warned the republic's leadership against unwarranted steps in dealing with the Russian gas giant. "Gazprom is behaving in Russia as an unruly boss. It and the Kremlin are a powerful system used for funneling Russia's national wealth to the political elite. Because it charges Belarus a relatively low price on gas, Gazprom could demand the right to purchase all kinds of assets in our country. By using schemes that have been tried and tested in Russia, it could make it so that the Belarusian budget gets kopecks, while the main profits from the sale would go to the current establishment. In the early stages, Belarus would likely receive gas cheaply, but at a later stage, the gas prices, delivery conditions and Gazprom's behavior in Belarus will be determined by Moscow. Thus, decisions concerning cooperation with the Russian gas monopoly must be strategically balanced and transparent." (BelGazeta, October 12)
Commentators are convinced that the Kremlin's ultimate aim is to integrate the two countries politically, up to and including the loss of Belarus' sovereignty. "If Alexander Lukashenko rejects loans, Russia could increase gas prices to $250-300 ... Loans are spent quickly and often wasted ... on supporting enterprises that function by inertia. Russia is purposely pulling Belarus into a structural stagnation so as to confront it with serious arguments for a common ruble, followed by political integration a year or two later. At this point, Lukashenko will be faced with a real choice: either remain president of an independent state, or face a serious financial and general crisis when the creditor of last resort refuses to release its funds." (Solidarnost, October 8)
UKRAINE
Few writers doubt that the Kremlin will try to take advantage of friction in the upper echelons of the Ukrainian government. "Ukraine has been hit by a 'state and political crisis' (words of Dmitry Medvedev)... This pretty much sums up Moscow's reaction to the past week's events in Kiev. 'The crook Yushchenko' (words of Vladimir Putin) has not only taken his prime minister's plane, but has also once again driven the country to early elections. There does not appear to be any money in the Ukrainian treasury for the voting, with one bank rupture after another, and on top of that, Russia might send Ukrainian gas prices through the ceiling. Political experts from the Kremlin are not hiding their glee, as this is an act of retribution against Ukraine's wish to join NATO 'against Russia' (quoting Sergei Lavrov), and their friendship with Georgia" (Gazeta 24, October 13)
Analysts criticize Kiev's inability to maintain stable relations with Moscow, something which Minsk does with success. "Only four days separate Putin's meetings with Tymoshenko and Lukashenko, but on neither occasion did he look particularly inspired or satisfied. Russia is obviously unwilling to have to do with both parties, though the results of negotiations in Minsk and in Novo-Ogarevo differ substantially. Moscow realizes that Lukashenko thinks only of his interests and, despite his claims of emotional and declarative support, will never retreat from the real sovereignty of Belarus. Behind his moves, Moscow sees a clear logic of struggle: he is trying to use to his advantage the soured relations between Russia and the West and, more importantly, the main thing is that the Belarusian leader is prepared to guarantee his commitments. Tymoshenko is unable to do so, no matter how hard she tries. A constant infighting within the Ukrainian elite prevents the country from fixing on any certain course in international politics." (Kommentarii, October 9)
MOLDOVA
The Tiraspol media keep harping that only Russia can help solve the Transdnestr conflict. "Russia has always stuck to the principle that the sides themselves must come to an agreement. Now, it says it will accept any solution that is in accordance with international law ... Our people have made their choice in a referendum: not EU, not NATO, but together with the great Russia" (Lenta PMR, October 8).
"The recent events in the Caucasus have shown that a unipolar world order has failed - it has been defeated, contrary to U.S. and NATO interests, by a strong Russia. Next on the agenda are Transdnestr and its relations with Moldova. Russia has suggested that Moldova and Transdnestr come to an agreement themselves on the form of their co-existence, and does not intend to exert any pressure or impose any proposals on either side. Only Russia is able to render Transdnestr real support." (Pridnestrovye, October 10)
Publications that oppose Chisinau authorities paint a dark picture of Moldova's future, should it come under Russia's thumb. "The nationalistic outbursts, chauvinist claims, and revenge-seeking ambitions of a superpower with geopolitical complexes extend as far as Moldova, and bring with them Romanophobia, disregard for democratic values, hatred of the West, a cult of intimidation, worship of might, etc. The Putinisation of Russia, now successfully accomplished, is now making its way to other former Soviet republics. Thanks to the help of Chisinau leaders, it has already swept over our territory." (Journal de Chisinau, October 14).
ARMENIA
Local analysts are discussing the results of the armed conflict in South Ossetia last August and Europe's peacekeeping efforts.
"The August war has opened the door to a drawn-out war over the zones of influence between Russia and the United States, and has also created a serious geopolitical problem, because it changed Russia's role in global politics. As a result of the war, Georgia has 'divested' Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which prevented it from joining NATO, and can now hope to receive huge investments. Russia has taken over the two territories, and laid a fresh claim to involvement in global processes. The U.S. has finally torn Georgia away from Russia and received a foothold for strengthening its position in the South Caucasus." (Azg, October 14)
"The success of the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan has become the first real evidence that European politicians have stopped looking to the U.S. and are set to prove that they can solve problems in the Old World independently. France and Germany will not opt for worsening relations with Russia over a small country of no strategic value, however humiliating this may be for Mikheil Saakashvili." (Aiastani Anrapetutun, October 14)
Analysts are displeased with what Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said about possible ways to solve the Karabakh problem.
"Lavrov's interview [with Rossiiskaya Gazeta] has opened the eyes of those Armenians who still hope that Russia will help find a fair solution to the Karabakh problem. The Russian foreign minister clearly indicated that no settlement would be possible without Turkey. In light of the recent events in the region, Lavrov's conclusions are logical: no matter what the high-ranking diplomat may say, Russia was not protecting South Ossetians, but trying to regain power in the Caucasus."(PanArmenian, October 9)
"Why is the Russian foreign minister pushing Armenia towards Turkey? The answer is simple: Turkey has problems with Armenia, which is influenced by Russia, while Armenia hopes to get something from Azerbaijan, which is influenced by Turkey. The solution of Turkey's problems will not damage Russia's interests, while the solution of Russian problems will not affect the interests of Turkey. Consequently, Russia and Turkey have a fair chance of coming to terms on this issue, proceeding from their mutual interests, which they are trying to do." (Azg, October 14)
GEORGIA
Local analysts are not optimistic about the discussions of the implementation of the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan during the EU summit.
"Unless an agreement is reached on Russians' withdrawal from Akhalgori [a region in South Ossetia], the EU should insist on economic sanctions, provided it really wants to use available instruments against Russia." (Novosti-Georgia news agency, October 13)
"A catastrophe has hit the country, for it is a catastrophe when we discuss who has protected Tbilisi from Russian troops, Silvio Berlusconi or Nicolas Sarkozy. The West doesn't want to introduce sanctions against Russia, but it will have to do so". (The Georgian Times, October 8)
Political analysts believe that Russia's actions against Georgia were irrational and that therefore its next move cannot be predicted.
Russians have gone beyond the limits of the rational. These people are ill, and refuse to let go of Eurasia. Vladimir Putin ... is still in the Soviet Union. The West smirked at his attacks. Until August 9, America thought Russians would not dare openly enter Georgia. If America thought so, what can we do? (The Georgian Times, October 8)
AZERBAIJAN
Analysts write that the CIS leaders are worried by Russia's energy policy, and in particular its attempts to dictate conditions to the EU.
"Russia is going too far, trying to set up an anti-American coalition. The EU countries fear Russian attempts to use energy to force its rules of the game on them. Russia forgets that there is a pro-American 'fifth column' in the EU, meaning the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe. These countries, who have had the bitter experience of 'brotherly' relations with Russia, will torpedo any EU attempts to develop closer relations with Moscow. As for Azerbaijan and Ukraine, they have no reason to join Russia's anti-American game, but they don't want to unduly offend it either." (Zerkalo, October 9)
Commenting on Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS, the local media write that Azerbaijan would not dare do the same soon.
"The CIS countries keep their membership in that organization only to protect themselves against Russia's pressure. This forced membership will last for as long as Russia can pressurize them economically or militarily. What is the CIS? It is a gentlemen's club, obligatory hobnobbing of post-Soviet countries. Azerbaijan is not a willing member of that organization; it was forced to join it." (Zerkalo, October 10)
Yielding to pressure from the international community and due to the global financial crisis, the Kremlin will gradually have to soften its stance in the South Caucasus, but it will bargain to the last over each minor concession, the newspapers write.
"Moscow is coming to see that it has pushed itself into a trap by sending troops to Georgia. However, its aggressive policy has shown that it can attack a U.S. ally and advance as far as its capital. It invaded Georgia to demonstrate its military might and influence. It was the Kremlin's warning to other CIS countries. There are elements of political bargaining even in the withdrawal of Russian troops. Maybe Europe and Russia have agreed to withdraw Russian troops and lower America's role in the region. Or maybe Russia has ensured that Georgia's accession to NATO will be slowed down." (Khalg dzhebkhesi, October 10)
KAZAKHSTAN
Analysts see energy as a powerful instrument for correcting international relations in conditions of the global financial crisis, and not only within the CIS.
"The pro-American world denounced Russia's actions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, hoping to be able to exclude Moscow from the G8 and terminating relations with it in NATO. But since late last week the Kremlin has suddenly become the biggest friend of Old Europe, while [U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza] Rice has toured pro-Russian countries to assure them of eternal friendship and promise them stronger cooperation. Russia, with its energy resources, has suddenly become everyone's big friend and brother. Ukraine has signed a memorandum to go over to market prices for Russian natural gas and transit to Europe within three years. [Prime Minister] Yulia Tymoshenko, who used to say she would never accept market prices for Russian gas, has seen that the time of resistance is over. Russia can turn off gas, and this will affect badly not only Ukraine but also its Western neighbors, who sponsored all of Kiev's political antics in the last few years." (Novoye Pokoleniye, October 10)
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